Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

West Orange County is still moving, even with rates above 7%

By Andy Neal

Real estate, Primary market

Thank you for reading. I know the first thing on your mind right now is probably the rate. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That is real, and it matters for payment planning. But it has not stopped buyers in West Orange County from making moves. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,184 homes sold across this market in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 9.3% from the same three months a year ago.

Nationally, the picture is more mixed. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales dipped 2.0% month over month in August 2026. Realtor.com noted that homes under contract nationally were down 4.1% year over year as of late September. So the fact that this market grew 9.3% in sales stands out. West Orange County is not following the national slowdown.

Pending sales point forward, not back

Sold numbers tell you what already happened. Pending sales tell you what is coming. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,234 pending sales across the market in the same period, up 8.3% from a year ago. New listings rose 3.4% to 1,537. Buyers are writing contracts even as rates climb.

Each ZIP code tells a different story

The market-wide number is useful, but your ZIP code may read very differently. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for each area in the three months ending July 31, 2026.

ZIP 34761, which covers Ocoee, had the tightest supply: 2.9 months, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Prices there dipped 3.3% year over year to $445,000, a small correction worth knowing if you are pricing a home there. Sales were still up 8.2%, and nearly 1 in 6 homes sold above list price.

The Windermere-address ZIP 34786 had a median sale price of $879,950, up 5.3%. Keep in mind that many homes with a Windermere mailing address sit in unincorporated Orange County, not inside the Town of Windermere. That distinction can matter for buyers. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 214 sales there, up 13.8% from a year ago, and days on market dropped 6 days to 37.

ZIP 32836, which covers part of the Dr. Phillips area, had the fastest pace: a median of just 23 days on market, 19 days shorter than a year ago, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The median sale price rose 27.1% to $937,500. That is a large year-over-year jump. One quarter's numbers can move with the mix of homes that sold, so treat it as a signal worth watching, not a promise.

ZIP 34787, which covers Winter Garden south of SR 50 and most of Horizon West, had the most activity: 550 homes sold, up 3.4%, with 582 pending sales up 11.1%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Supply held steady at 4.3 months. Nearly 1 in 3 homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, and that share rose 4.7 points from a year ago.

ZIP 34734, a small Gotha-area ZIP, had only 10 sales in the period, down 37.5% from a year ago, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes for sale nearly doubled, and months of supply jumped to 6.1 months. With so few sales, one or two homes can shift every number. I would look at this one carefully before drawing conclusions.

What rates above 7% mean for sellers right now

I understand the concern. When Freddie Mac reports a 30-year rate of 7.28%, some sellers worry buyers will pull back. Nationally, Realtor.com noted rates climbed nearly 40 basis points over four weeks heading into October. That is a real shift. But the West Orange County pending sales number, up 8.3% year over year, says buyers here are still moving forward. They are adjusting their budgets, not walking away.

What it does mean for sellers: pricing matters more now than it did when rates were lower. Buyers doing the payment math at 7.28% are less forgiving of an overpriced home. The sale-to-list ratios across this market, ranging from 96.2% to 98.7% depending on the ZIP, tell you that sellers are getting close to list price when they price well. They are not getting it when they do not.

One more thing worth knowing about schools

If you are buying or selling with a family in mind, school zones come up in almost every conversation. Windermere High School, Olympia High School, Panther Lake Elementary, and the Horizon West schools are names buyers ask about by name. Zone boundaries here shift as new schools open. Always verify the current assignment for a specific address directly with Orange County Public Schools. I can help you find the right contact.